The NFL Betting Line and its Importance

Betting on NFL is like taking a 50/50 chance. The key is having an edge, and understanding an NFL betting line provides a much needed edge.

The most important single numbers when reviewing NFL betting lines are "3" and "7". These are important since the vast majority of games win by either a field goal or a touchdown. The numbers "1", "4", "6", "10", "13" and "14" also occur frequently but are not nearly as common as "3" and"7".

The NFL betting line is derived from a group of sharp linesmakers who have a keen understanding of where the game will ultimately land in conjunction with the line. The sophisticated sports bettor understands the frequency in which games fall within a point of the actual line. Unfortunately, most gamblers are always on the wrong side. Teasers add a considerable edge but are diluted by the number of games that must be won, though the payout odds tend to compensate. Teasers allow one to subtract or add 6 or more points but with various team combinations.

Below is the frequency in which specific scores occurred during the 2001 NFL season:

3 17.3% Field Goal
7 9.7% Touchdown
10 6.9% Touchdown + Field Goal
4 5.6% Touchdown - Field Goal
1 4.4% Touchdown - 2 Field Goals
6 4.4% 2 Field Goals
14 4.4% 2 Touchdowns
13 4.0% Touchdown + 2 Field Goals

An NFL football line of "3" is very important to analyze when playing teasers. Here, the linesmaker as well as the public consider the teams to be of equal strength with a slight edge usually going to the home team or the team with a better record. Normally one will find lines somewhere in the middle between a "3" and "7" favoring the guest team when the home team is not the favorite. Often games that are given a line of "3" in the NFL tend to stay within 10 points.

Most line watchers realize that "sharp" action dictates a line move, hence, when an NFL football line opens at "3" and moves down to "2" rather quickly, "sharp" money is on the underdog. Some of the sharpest lines are found at sportsbooks like Pinnacle, Grande and Olympic.

It is essential to remember that the public often errs by going against a team that announces serious injuries to a key player such as the quarterback. But the linesmaker has already typically factored in this equation and realizes that the public will be betting the other side.